Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 2.050469 2.155084 2.266889 2.396149 2.542628 2.704921 2.900445
2025-06-29 1.931323 2.065478 2.214681 2.395270 2.611366 2.866514 3.198690
2025-07-06 1.821321 1.968424 2.136089 2.345069 2.604420 2.924721 3.366934
2025-07-13 1.778091 1.941591 2.132539 2.377797 2.694184 3.104969 3.712973
2025-07-20 1.757786 1.938298 2.154122 2.439728 2.823183 3.348832 4.192733
2025-07-27 1.714470 1.903354 2.132922 2.443284 2.872499 3.486216 4.540630
2025-08-03 1.676639 1.872394 2.113783 2.446479 2.919371 3.623565 4.920803
2025-08-10 1.616576 1.810592 2.051565 2.386926 2.870370 3.605914 5.014591
2025-08-17 1.579331 1.775862 2.022353 2.369997 2.881100 3.682994 5.310735
2025-08-24 1.546748 1.745574 1.997217 2.356613 2.895052 3.765855 5.644176
2025-08-31 1.518575 1.719739 1.976566 2.347858 2.914567 3.859764 6.036501
2025-09-07 1.501430 1.707363 1.973030 2.362817 2.971608 4.027776 6.689270
2025-09-14 1.452621 1.653281 1.912710 2.294532 2.893824 3.942496 6.640493
2025-09-21 1.430991 1.634177 1.899136 2.293946 2.925991 4.071689 7.295544
2025-09-28 1.395038 1.595044 1.856659 2.248234 2.879652 4.039432 7.421227
2025-10-05 1.387017 1.592638 1.864542 2.278072 2.962643 4.283719 8.737027
2025-10-12 1.388003 1.602118 1.889090 2.334404 3.097090 4.671662 11.406098
2025-10-19 1.372153 1.588242 1.879962 2.337633 3.136516 4.852492 13.560284
2025-10-26 1.357074 1.574927 1.871050 2.340535 3.175359 5.041905 16.715078
2025-11-02 1.325610 1.538429 1.827717 2.286386 3.102039 4.926032 16.344353
2025-11-09 1.306976 1.519182 1.808824 2.270967 3.102157 5.008465 18.998024
2025-11-16 1.290126 1.501996 1.792392 2.258768 3.107507 5.107193 23.103627
2025-11-23 1.275230 1.487162 1.778934 2.250783 3.120448 5.231411 30.675650